Stock market crash

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moderator    (2008-09-24)


Stock market crash

First, the government accepting $30 billion of Bear Stearns drecky collateral for a $29 billion loan to JPMorgan, second assuming responsibility for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, guaranteeing money-market funds, then making a loan to AIG ($85 billion), finally proposing the mother of all bailouts (up to $700 billion).

According to the White House, it is not necessary to include these costs in the budget, the Federal Reserve is charging AIG an interest rate of three-month LIBOR plus 8.5 percent (about 11.4 percent), all these bailouts will most probably cost taxpayers tens of billions, possibly hundreds of billions dollars. This seems of vital importance for the U.S. economy and the financial system but the question is just : Is it worth it ?


Le monde des finances continue sa politique de l'autruche, mais a-t-il le choix ?  Si l'on ne positive pas dans ce milieu, on n'a plus qu'à plier bagage. Et malgré les actions massives et répétées des autorités monétaires internationales, les places boursières du monde entier n'en finissent plus de dégringoler.

Ces derniers jours ont été agités pour le moins, la crise des subprimes refait parler d'elle. Afin de tenter de calmer les marchés, notamment après la mise en faillite de la banque Lehman Brothers et le rachat précipité de Merrill Lynch, le tout suivant la catastrophe de la Bear Stearns en mars, la Réserve fédérale américaine a annoncé qu'elle allait apporter 180 milliards de dollars de liquidités aux marchés, s'ajoutant entre autres aux 85 milliards destinés à porter secours à l'assureur AIG, dont près de 70% des dérivés de crédits émis, soit environ 307 milliards de dollars, seraient dans les comptes de banques européennes. En cas de faillite, les banques les plus exposées seraient BNP Paribas, Royal Bank of Scotland, la Société générale et UBS.

Les actions de Morgan Stanley (en discussions pour fusionner avec la banque régionale Wachovia) et de Goldman Sachs plongent malgré en bourse, les banques d'affaires indépendantes ne sont plus viables pour le marché. La banque britannique Lloyds TSB a annoncé le rachat de Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) pour 12,2 milliards de livres. Fortis, UBS, Royal Bank of Scotland, toutes semblent être plongées dans une situation des plus inquiétantes. Mais les grandes banques centrales promettent une action concertée afin de rassurer les investisseurs.

A l'ordre du jour du sénat américain, le plan Paulson, qui s'élèverait à 700 milliards de dollars, d'une manière ou d'une autre aux frais du contribuable, tout ceci dans un contexte qui évolue inexorablement vers une nouvelle carte économique mondiale, l'Europe se destinant peu à peu au rôle de simple spectateur des grands échanges économiques Russie-Chine, Amérique du sud-Etats Unis, l'Inde quelque part au milieu. Les ressources "humaines" chinoises, les réserves de gaz polaires (russes), de pétrole et autres matières premières dans certains pays semblent encore inépuisables. Le déséquilibre entre la Chine, qui accumule des centaines de milliards de dollars dans des réserves qu'elle ne sait plus comment utiliser, et les Etats-Unis affublés d'une dette gigantesque semble ne pas avoir de limite.

Pendant ce temps, les cours du pétrole continuent de jouer au yoyo en suivant le cours du dollar influencé lui-même par la crise boursière, les répercussions sont mondiales et sonnent comme une première alerte. Le grand crash est prévu pour l'an 2010 par certains économistes, mais 2009 promet déjà d'être une année spectaculaire. Bien téméraires sont ceux qui comptent tirer profit de la bourse à long terme, comme toujours quelques grands acteurs sauront profiter de ses fluctuations au dépends des petites bourses, mieux vaut encore s'essayer au day trading.

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*boursicot    (2008-10-08 16:55:16)

Le CAC 40 est retombé en dessous des 3600 points, ça se casse la figure partout ailleurs et ce n'est peut être que le début... Achetez de l'or.

*5ec771    (2009-03-10 23:37:06)
La bourse

Merde, ça parait déjà loin maintenant qu'on est à 2500, il fallait tout vendre, c'est déjà trop tard.

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Stock market crash

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